Global sea level linked to global temperature

Edited: 2012-05-16
TitleGlobal sea level linked to global temperature
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2009
AuthorsVermeer, M., and S. Rahmstorf
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Pagination21527 - 21532
Date Published12/2009
Keywordsclimate, sea_level, steric
AbstractWe propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100.
Short TitleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences